Internet May Be The Largest Industry In China Not Dominated By State-Owned Firms

The New York Times has an interesting article today on thriving state-owned companies in China-”China’s Policies Ensure State Enterprises Grow“.

The article makes no mention of China’s Internet industry, which will generate 6-7+ billion dollars in revenue this year from gaming, advertising and other sources, is growing 20% or more per year, and which has publicly listed companies with a combined market capitalization approaching 100 billion dollars (partial list here), and much more if you include the value of private firms like Alibaba Group and its Taobao subsidiary. A few billion dollars in annual revenue and 100 billion dollars or so in market capitalization still pales compared to China’s overall economy and to some of these state-owned behemoths. But as the Internet increasingly becomes embedded into hundreds of millions of people’s daily lives, its influence on Chinese society and China’s economy will be much greater than its current revenue would suggest.

In addition, foreign investors have large stakes in several of the large Chinese Internet firms, including Alibaba Group (Yahoo and Softbank together own a majority) and Tencent (South African media firm Naspers owns 35%). I think the government did not understand the potential or the importance of these small startups when the investments were made several years ago; it is highly unlikely foreigners could take such large stakes now.

State-owned firms are trying to win share online, with ventures by CCTV, public listing of the new media arms of state media firms etc., but absent regulatory intervention or M&A it is going to be very hard for the state-owned firms to catch up to the private Internet sector.

Please tell me what you think in the comments.

You can subscribe to this blog’s RSS feed here, get my more frequent Twitter updates @niubi, and see my Sina Weibo updates here. You can also follow my blogging on more general China topics at Sinocism. And if you want cupcakes or custom cakes in Beijing, please check out my girlfriend’s CCSweets bakery. CCSweets has locations in Central Park in CBD and the Village North in Sanlitun, and you can always order online.

Baidu Launches Software Search Engine

Baidu has quietly launched a software search engine. There have been no announcements, and no links to the site yet, but you can access it directly at http://www.soft.baidu.com. I learned about it through Sina’s increasing awesome Weibo microblog service.

Baidu’s software search covers both mobile and PC applications.  This is likely to be a very popular and disruptive service, and eventually very lucrative. No word if Baidu screens to ensure that the software they link to is malware/virus-free, though I would assume they do.

Front page of Baidu Software Search:

Results page for a software download, n this case Tencent’s QQ IM.

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What A Downgrade of Tencent Says About China’s Online Gaming Sector

On Monday evening SIG analyst Zhao Chunming downgraded Tencent from positive to neutral over concerns about its valuation in the face of a slowdown in the Chinese online game market. 48% of Tencent’s revenue comes from online gaming, and in the last several weeks Perfect World, Shanda Games, Giant Interactive and Netease have all issued disappointing earnings results and/or forecasts.

Clearly something is going on in China’s online gaming market, and Zhao has the best explanation I have yet seen. From Zhao’s note:

1) User growth slowing down. Given the fact that new Internet users are mainly coming from older age groups, rural areas, and mobile users, we are forecasting a slower growth rate (10.6% five-year CAGR) in the number of gamers vs. total web users (15.9% five-year CAGR) (see Figure 1).

2) Competition from multiple fronts, most notably social network games. We believe social network games are competing against MMO games for users’ time. Chinese Internet users now have more diversified entertainment means than before, causing high-monetization MMO games to lose growth momentum.

3) Intensifying competition among game companies. Tencent has been a fast share gainer during the past two years, which led to slower growth in the rest of the online game companies. However, due to a more mature online games market, Tencent may face growth concerns as well. Major game companies have seen talent losses to rivals or VC-invested start-ups, resulting in an across-the-board increase in engineer and designer costs.

4) Market filled with homogeneous content, lack of innovations. We believe the stickiness of games has come down, due to games “learning” from each other in game play and monetization features. Based on our talks with gamers, we think the average play time for an average game is less than nine months. It is increasingly difficult to produce blockbusters in this market.

5) ARPU growth significantly slower, raising questions about the item-based model. We believe there have been bubbles in the monetization of item-based games. Expensive functional items have led to imbalance, user loss, and regulatory oversight (e.g., treasure box features). When high ARPU is unsustainable, companies scale back monetization to retain users. In our opinion, the monetization incentives behind the item-based games have caused deviation of game usage, i.e., chasing virtual items rather than the core entertainment purpose.

I’d also add that increased competition has hurt margins through increasing marketing costs and there are growing concerns about further regulations that may impact revenue.

Zhao questions how Tencent, already the third most valuable Internet company in the world, can increase its market capitalization in a meaningful way. He suggests that Tecent consider buying Sina or Perfect World:

The question is, how can Tencent add another ~$10 bln market cap from here? Tencent is currently trading at US$36 bln market cap, ranking #3 among global Internet names. To make a 30% return on its shares, we need another US$10.8 bln market cap. This is equivalent to 0.4x BIDU, 7x SINA, 3.7x NTES, or 10.5x PWRD (based on their EVs). We are unable to find where this large valuation can come from, considering new growth drivers still being too small in their growth stages. In our view, Tencent should consider an acquisition of PWRD or SINA.

All of these companies have growth rates, revenues, profits and cash balances that most Internet companies can only dream of. They are, with perhaps the exception of Giant Interactive and The9, still quite healthy, just maturing. But the era of explosive growth may be ending.

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AutoNavi’s IPO Filing Maps China’s Mapping Regulatory Regime

Leading Chinese map provider AutoNavi holdings is planning to raise $100 in an IPO on Nasdaq under the symbol “AMAP”. The company generates most of its revenue from automobile navigation.

Wireless and online mapping services (through its MapABC Technology subsidiary) account for approximately 10% of overall, and Google specifically accounts for just over 1%.  (As the Wall Street Journal reported today, Google is applying for a new online map license in China and may not get it-Google Seeks Beijing License).

In its F-1 filing with the SEC, AutoNavi provides an overview of the regualtory environment for mapping in China. It is eyeopening. From AutoNavi’s filing:

As a provider of navigation and location-based solutions, we are regulated by various government authorities, including, among others:

The State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping;

The General Administration of Press and Publications;

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (successor of Ministry of Information Industry); and

The State Administration for Industry and Commerce.

The principal PRC regulations governing surveying and mapping, digital map production, aerial photogrammetry, online map publication and other aspects of our business activities in China include:

Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries (Amended in 2007);

Surveying and Mapping Law (2002);

Map Drawing and Publishing Administrative Regulations (1995);

The Administrative Rules of Surveying Qualification Certificate (2009);

The Rules of Examination and Verification of Maps (2006);

The Notice on Strengthening the Administration of Internet Map (2005);

The Notice Regarding Administration of Digital Navigation Maps (2007);

Opinions on Strengthening the Administration of Internet Map Services and the Websites that Provide Geographical Information Services (2008);

The Notice on Strengthening the Administration of Internet Map (2009);

The Notice Regarding Strengthening the Administration of Aerial Photogrammetry (2005);

Telecommunications Regulations (2000);

The Administrative Measures for Telecommunications Business Operating Licenses (2001);

The Internet Information Services Administrative Measures (2000);

The Tentative Measures for Administration of Internet Publication (2002);

The Administrative Measures on Electronic Publications (2008); and

Standard for Internet Map Services (2010).

As the navigation and location-based services industry is at an early stage of development in China, new laws and regulations may be adopted from time to time to require additional licenses and permits other than those which we currently have, and to address new issues that arise from time to time. As a result, substantial uncertainties exist regarding the interpretation and implementation of any current and future PRC laws and regulations applicable to the navigation and location-based services industry.

AutoNavi is a well-connected Chinese firm that is enjoying the boom in Chinese car ownership and the subsequent demand for navigation devices. Google is a foreign-firm recently criticized on CCTV for leaking state secrets through its mapping products; Danwei has an excellent English summary of that report. I would be surprised if Google gets the new mapping license.

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Rebecca MacKinnon On China’s Internet White Paper. American Investors Should Pay Attention

Rebecca MacKinnon has written a must-read post on the Chinese government’s recently issued White Paper on the Internet in China. She provides the best explanation I have seen of the government’s approach to managing the Chinese Internet–”networked authoritarianism”. As Ms. MacKinnon writes:

China is pioneering what I call “networked authoritarianism.” Compared to classic authoritarianism, networked authoritarianism permits – or shall we say accepts the Internet’s inevitable consequences and adjusts – a lot more give-and-take between government and citizens than in a pre-Internet authoritarian state. While one party remains in control, a wide range of conversations about the country’s problems rage on websites and social networking services. The government follows online chatter, and sometimes people are even able to use the Internet to call attention to social problems or injustices, and even manage to have an impact on government policies. As a result, the average person with Internet or mobile access has a much greater sense of freedom – and may even feel like they have the ability to speak and be heard – in ways that weren’t possible under classic authoritarianism. It also makes most people a lot less likely to join a movement calling for radical political change. In many ways, the regime actually uses the Internet not only to extend its control but also to enhance its legitimacy.

At the same time, in the networked authoritarian state there is no guarantee of individual rights and freedoms. People go to jail when the powers-that-be decide they are too much of a threat – and there’s nothing anybody can do about it. Truly competitive, free and fair elections do not happen. The courts and the legal system are tools of the ruling party

Connecting every citizen in China to the Internet via multiple devices might sound like something the Chinese Communist Party would want to avoid. Several people who contacted me about China’s Internet White Paper were surprised at the Chinese government’s enthusiasm for connectivity. Such enthusiasm does not jive with most American and European notions of how an authoritarian state would be run by a party that calls itself Communist. What’s important to understand is that Chinese authoritarianism in the Internet age is not the same as the crumbling, centrally-planned authoritarianism of the Eastern Bloc, disconnected from the Western capitalist world.

The CCP leadership recognizes that they can’t control everybody all the time if they’re going to be a technologically advanced global economic powerhouse. What’s more, high Internet penetration is necessary if the Chinese government wants to continue high rates of economic growth, which economists agree requires boosting domestic consumer demand as well as pushing Chinese companies to the cutting edge of technological innovation.  China catapulted itself to become the world’s second largest economy by turning itself into the world’s factory. But Chinese labor has grown expensive compared to some other markets in poorer countries. In order to stay competitive and keep growing, China needs to transition from a manufacturing-fueled economy to an economy fueled by domestic consumption at home, while being an innovator for advanced technologies and services that can compete with American and European companies.

She concludes her post with a passage that should trigger warning bells for American insitutional investors in Chinese Internet firms:

Note that many of the big Chinese companies receive American investment dollars or are publicly traded on U.S. stock exchanges, sending a clear message that whatever U.S. elected officials might say about “Internet freedom,” many American investors are quite happy to profit from China’s status quo.

So far no one campaigning for Internet freedom in China has linked investment in Chinese Internet firms to activism. But if someone with the stature and influence of Rebecca MacKinnon starts pushing this idea many institutional funds and their limited partners, which include large pension funds and university endowments, could find themselves in an uncomfortable spotlight.

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Can China Successfully Build Soft Power Without A Global Internet Strategy?

This post originally appeared on Sinocism.com, my blog about more general China topics.

China’s efforts to build its “soft power” have been in the news over the last few months. So far none of the coverage of the media strategy for soft power has discussed what may be the fatal flaw in the government’s strategy-the media efforts are almost entirely focused on declining media like television, radio and print.

Not only has there been limited emphasis by the Chinese government on using the Internet to further soft power, but there are also major structural and cultural issues that make it extremely difficult for China to push its soft power agenda over the Internet. China has planned the soft power effort as a multi-decade effort, but the lack of effective products for the medium of future generations may doom the government’s efforts.

Can you really win hearts and minds when you are known as a country that blocks Facebook, Google, Youtube and Twitter, among the most popular Internet services globally?

First, some background. This Sinica Podcast-Dimensions of China’s Soft Power-and this story in the Washington Post by John Pomfret-From China’s mouth to Texans’ ears: Outreach includes small station in Galveston-are both excellent primers on the media aspects of China’s soft power push. And today Professor David Shambaugh, one of the top American scholars on China, has an Op-Ed in the International Herald Tribune-China Flexes Its Soft Power. He lays out many of the measures China has launched to further its soft power:

[The] State Council Information Office is coordinating China’s media and exchange organizations to “go out” (zou chuqu) and establish a foothold in the international media environment and think-tank world.

The Chinese government is investing a reported $8.7 billion in 2009-2010 in its “external publicity work” — primarily on the “Big Four”: China Central Television (CCTV), China Radio International (CRI), Xinhua News Agency and the China Daily newspaper — while media executives and opinion shapers from various countries are being brought to China for “familiarization” tours.

All four of these external media outlets have had major makeovers in recent months, all intended to give a less propagandistic face to the world. Foreigners now anchor news broadcasts; op-ed pages are becoming more serious; radio programs are more diversified; Web sites are more informative; and newspapers are publishing more investigative stories.

Some specific efforts include Xinhua TV now operating a 24 hour news channel that is trying to imitate Al Jazeera; CCTV News is trying to compete with CNN and BBC; CRI is buying more air time in a number of AM and FM radio markets in the United States and Europe, while broadcasting directly into Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. CCTV now broadcasts six international channels in five languages and claims a total global audience of about 125 million.

Some provincial television stations (Chongqing, Shanghai and Hunan) also seek a niche in the foreign broadcast market. China has also funded a series of English and Chinese language television stations abroad, such as Blue Ocean Network (BON TV) and Great Wall TV in the United States.

Xinhua News Agency is penetrating deeply into the developing world, becoming the principal source of news for people in Africa. Xinhua also sees a particular target of opportunity with the main Western news wires (AP, UPI, Thomson Reuters). Xinhua’s strategy is to file mainly descriptive news reports, unfiltered with Chinese political perspective, and to develop a clientele by marketing a cheaper news report than the big Western wire services.

Currently, Xinhua has 80,000 paying institutional subscribers, which produces a strong revenue stream, but also provides a source of news and information to publics in the developing world where there are precious few domestic sources. Xinhua has 400 correspondents posted in 117 bureaus around the world, with plans to add 10 more by 2012 and to grow to 180 by 2020.

These are very impressive and expensive plans. China is leveraging the media channels and distribution mechanisms it understands, and hiring, no doubt at great expense, western old media hands as consultants. But as Google and Facebook and its 500m users have shown, the future influencers globally are increasingly online.

Google’s withdraw from China will have a lasting impact on China’s soft power efforts. As I told the New York Times soon after Google’s withdrawal:

“The Chinese are very serious about pushing their soft-power agenda,” Bill Bishop…said Tuesday. “Google just put a big hole in that sales pitch, and I think they know that.”

There are no domestic Chinese Internet firms that have a shot at developing the global impact of a Facebook, Google or even Twitter. First, the language barrier is a real issue; maybe the Confucius Institutes will eventually teach decent Chinese to millions, but that will take decades and even then there will still be vastly more people outside of China more capable of reading English than Chinese.

Second, none of the top Chinese Internet firms-Baidu, Tencent, Sina, Sohu, Shanda, Netease-have either the DNA or the credibility to succeed materially in major overseas markets. In most markets they will face the same kinds of difficulties that Western Internet firms face in China. They may gain share, especially in gaming, in parts of the developing world, but not in any significant way that would have a meaningful impact on the overall soft power goals.

China’s soft power push is likely a boon to western media consultants, cable channel and radio station owners, and advertising sales people, but is the currently strategy flawed to the extent that worries about China’s media soft power efforts are overblown?

Professor Shambaugh, who also makes no mention of the Internet in China’s soft power plans, concludes his Op-Ed with the following:

No matter how well resourced the (state) messenger is and how much the message is massaged, it is still reality that will play the main role in shaping China’s image around the world.

And when it comes to the Internet, the reality is that China has a poor image among and a weak product offering for most global netizens.

Note: If you are interested in more in-depth reading about China’s soft efforts, please see the following:

China Media Project-Li Changchun on the media and China’s “global influence”

China Media Project-Hitting hard with “soft power”: China explores macro-measures to bolster its global cultural prowess

People’s Daily-How to improve China’s soft power?

CSIS-Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States

People’s Daily-中国的软实力有哪些不足?

CRS Report: China’s Foreign Policy and “Soft Power” in South America, Asia, and Africa

Harvard Kennedy School-Joseph Nye on Smart Power

Imagethief-Unsolicited advice for Xinhua’s new CNC TV news outfit

The Daily Show-China’s Soft Power Push Vs The Daily Show And Stupidity In Hacienda Heights, California

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Sinica Podcast: Beijing’s Ambivalent Relationship with the Internet and Zhang Wuben’s Mung Beans

Last week I participated in a Sinica Podcast on the Internet in China and Zhang Wuben and his magic mung beans. I somehow ended up as the sole defender if the efficacy of properly practiced traditional Chinese medicine; the other guests seem to believe it is some kind of Chinese voodoo. From the Sinica site:

Mere mention of Chinese Internet censorship is no longer taboo. Or that’s our take-away from a recent white paper by the State Council Informatization Office that outlines exactly how and why the Chinese government plans to tighten controls over online communications in China. Is Beijing trying to stuff the Internet genie back in its proverbial bottle, or is Rebecca MacKinnon right with her metaphor of an expanded aviary: the birdcage may be tighter knit, but it is still bigger than ever before?

This week we take a closer look at what the Chinese government has said publicly about its plans for future Internet controls. Joining Kaiser in the studio are Sinica regulars Jeremy Goldkorn of Danwei fame, blogger and entrepreneur Bill Bishop, and Gady Epstein, the Beijing bureau chief for Forbes magazine.

You can listen to the podcast here.

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Thoughts On The Recent “Google Blocked In China” Story

Most readers surely know that the media went into a frenzy over a story, a false one, that Google search was now fully blocked in China. Rebecca MacKinnon summed it up very well, and there is an interesting discussion led by Matthew Ingram here at GigaOm. The mindless replication of this “story” was amazing to watch; it looked like a web variant of an H1N1 simulated epidemic.

I commented on Ingram’s post, and have copied that comment below:

All it would have taken was for one of the journalists who first broke this to spend 60 seconds searching Twitter and they could have found people in China saying that there were no new blocks on Google. Instead, they wrote a market moving, hugely sensitive story off of an automated report by Google computers, when they had no idea how Google’s machines were generating this alert. Google has refused in the past to disclose how it measures availability (I emailed their PR folks asking about how they are measuring this after a similar false report of mobile blocks a couple of months ago; they wrote back “no comment”).

In this day and age is it really appropriate for journalists to take at face value what a company, or its machines, say? Isn’t that what PR folks do?

As a cofounder (not a journalist) of Marketwatch.com I understand that covering breaking news can be very difficult, and I empathize with the pressure on the reporters to be either first or a close second. But the real time financial newswires like Bloomberg, Dow Jones and Reuters, all of which blew this story, are paid hundred of millions of dollars a year by subscribers to be both fast AND accurate. At one point Google shares dropped $9 and Baidu’s jumped several dollars on this “news”. Iterative, post-publishing fact-finding and error-correcting is not acceptable practice for professional financial news writers.

Reuters falls in the truly absurd category. They published a story quoting equally absurd analysts on the effects of this new “block”, and the article is still online, uncorrected-ANALYST VIEW – Google search service blocked in China

And to add to that comment, the business of journalism is under attack. But editors and journalists have no one to blame but themselves if the quality of their product is substandard, as it was in this case. Ironically TechCrunch, much derided, was the first to get the story correct.

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Chinese Video Site Tudou Raises $50M Series E

Tudou just announced that it has raised $50m, bringing the total amount the company has raised to $135m; no word on the valuation but hard to imagine it was lower than $200m. From the press release:

Tudou’s Series E funding round included $35 million led by Singapore based Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. (www.temasekholdings.com.sg), and US$15 million from existing investors. In total Tudou has raised US$135 million funding since the website went live on April 15, 2005, representing the largest investment to date for an online video business in China.

As I wrote a few months ago, investors have put well over $500m into Chinese video startups (the WSJ today says $815m), with high expectations but minimal returns to date.

There have been rumors that both Tudou and Youku hope to IPO in the US later this year. So far, the only US-listed Chinese video firm is Ku6.com, which got there via a distress sale and effectively a reverse merger with Hurray. There is no question advertisers are moving money into online video, and that is one reason I have started a very tiny position in Ku6, even though long-term I think the real winner in China’s video space will be Baidu’s Qiyi.com or Youku or Tudou, if they are acquired by a bigger Chinese firm like Tencent.

In the meantime investors are doubling down.

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Readings For 2010-09-03

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Readings For 2010-09-02

  • Beijing Netizens furious after center closes after raking in big $$ from deal run by Oak Pacific's Groupon clone Nuomi http://bit.ly/asoYg5 #
  • Motorola Out-Apps Apple in China – China Real Time Report – WSJ http://bit.ly/a22fN4 @imagethief deserves a raise #
  • Where is Facebook’s Chinese-Language Population Heading? Future Growth and Reasons to Invest http://bit.ly/du6LC3 inside social games #
  • Microsoft on Bing, Piracy, Xbox in China – China Real Time Report – WSJ http://bit.ly/cTMr8S #
  • Tale of a murdered microblog – China Media Project http://bit.ly/cInRta #

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Readings For 2010-09-01

  • 巫妖王开服:个别词被屏蔽 玩家被要求改名_中国经济网——国家经济门户 http://bit.ly/abZqRx #
  • Zinch.com Names Tom Melcher as VP Global Products & Partnerships, Chairman of China http://bit.ly/cDRqTo #
  • China's online shoppers numbered 108 million in 2009 – People's Daily Online http://bit.ly/akLeuu #

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Readings For 2010-08-31

  • Micro-blog posts help police prevent suicide attempt – People's Daily Online http://bit.ly/dyi85D #
  • rumors that Giant $ga has license 4 amazing korean dance game "Mstar" 虚幻3舞蹈网游《Mstar》 中国首测锁定9月24日 – 多玩新游戏频道 http://bit.ly/9duOrG #
  • Internet May Be The Largest Industry In China Not Dominated By State-owned Firms | Sinocism http://bit.ly/b7Sova #
  • Ku6 Extends Loss From Online Video Biz After Dumping Wireless Services – http://bit.ly/9pyXjG low valuation may hurt tudou, youku ipo plans #
  • growing war bween baidu and 360 / zhou hongyi over desktop. 360 flags baidu toolbar as malware 百度与360互诉 $bidu http://bit.ly/b5xI6l #
  • Baidu Launches Software Search Engine | DigiCha http://bit.ly/a3kYFX $bidu #
  • Baidu launches a software search service $bidu, for mobiles & PCs 百度软件 http://bit.ly/cItZYH @kaiserkuo links out on weibo #
  • WaPo-Baseball digs in its cleats in China http://bit.ly/bk5Lyx @peterschloss #
  • In Toledo, the 'Glass City,' New Label: Made in China – WSJ.com http://bit.ly/aREbCp #
  • nice profile of dazhong dianping in 21cbh 大众点评网张涛:创业板太不正常了,我不想去上市 http://bit.ly/aClXsX #

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Readings For 2010-08-30

  • China's Tencent To Acquire 49.92% Stake In Thai Portal – ChinaTechNews.com – http://bit.ly/bV2gyh #
  • In China, Western Firms Keep Secrets Close – WSJ.com http://bit.ly/dnMxcz how do staff background checks? #
  • Hotels.com Books More Growth in Asia – WSJ.com http://bit.ly/ak6OC0 #
  • Lenovo 2 Develop Game Console-WSJ no mention foreign consoles technically illegal in China? http://bit.ly/9tZ0QR not "murky" 2 $msft $sne #
  • Yichun police arrest 4 reporters interviewing survivors. then apologize 伊春警方扣留4名采访空难记者 事后道歉_资讯频道_凤凰网 http://bit.ly/cs53XM #
  • 搜索营销:新圈地运动_互联网_科技时代_新浪网 http://bit.ly/c9cRIY #
  • New video game pits grunts against Chinese army – Marine Corps Times "‘Operation Flashpoint: Red River,’" http://bit.ly/aq7Ynb #

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Readings For 2010-08-29

  • TechCrunch-Wow. If You Think Quitting Booze Freaks People Out, Wait Til’ You Quit Twitter http://tcrn.ch/cZpuyn would b liberating #
  • the return of Bruno Wu 吴征复出之谜 "21世纪经济报道 -核心提示:陈天桥让吴征出任董事长,意在利用吴征制定战略的能力,加上李善友的执行能力,一起带领酷6前行。" http://bit.ly/bJxbW1 #

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Readings For 2010-08-27

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Readings For 2010-08-26

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