Three Reasons The Government Is Unlikely To Shutdown Sina Weibo

• Posted by bbishop
• on March 3rd, 2011

Keso, one of China’s top IT bloggers, posted a brief note today listing three reasons why the Chinese government will not shutter Sina Weibo. He originally wrote the post as an answer to a question (陈彤的信心来自哪里?) on Zhihu, China’s Quora-clone, asking why Sina’s top editor Chen Tong recently said in a weibo that the odds of a Sina Weibo shutdown in the next twenty years are zero.

Keso, whose real name is Hong Bo 洪波, writes that the greatest risk to Sina Weibo was in its first year as media coverage hyped the idea of a “Twitter Revolution” in Iran, leading some in the government to believe Twitter et al were tools that would be used bring them down. But as more and more government departments use Weibo, and as Sina shows it can strictly control the content, the government now believes that:

1. People need an outlet for their views and emotions, and a visible one is safer than an invisible one;
2. Sina Weibo is controlled by people the government trusts, and the risks from shutting Weibo are greater than the risks from not shutting it;
3. The government can use Weibo to its advantage. (See China Media Project-China’s Leaders Embrace Social Media.)

I totally agree with Keso, and though Weibo may be neutered during times of political stress, investors and analysts may be overstating the regulatory risks. SIG’s Zhao Chunming, the axe on the company, on Wednesday upgraded his rating from neutral to positive and raised his price target to $99. He likely agrees with Keso too.

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